There are three related
failures of probability. One is Wigner's fallacy - the ultimate
circularity of science. Another is Sheldrake's fallacy – the
impossibility of the infinite tosser. A third emerges as the
non-gambler's fallacy – which we may call the ten to one to what?
The accuracy varies with the knowledge of the what. There are others,
but three is sufficient. And knowledge is a probability.

Now while we may find
takers for games of chance, fewer gamble on a coin landing as other
than a coin, despite the rather larger number of other forms it could
return as. To our knowledge there are too many tosses inherent in the
coin as coin.

A probability is only
ever with reference to another. The probability of logic=true is
assumed to be 1. This gives us say QED very probably correct, yet it
is certainly incorrect. It is incorrect by empiricism, since it
defies unification with reality with greater and greater probability.
But it is certainly incorrect since one can never measure spacetime
within it. There is no without. Ultimate checks are uncalibrated.
Logic too is ultimately an aspect of spacetime. The fabric of reality
is beyond valid deduction.

It's lucky coins know
all this. Quite the miracle, if you'd asked poor Wigner.

Some of this is beyond me but in all probability he has got something here. I like "The fabric of reality is beyond valid deduction." He is beyond peer.

ReplyDeleteIf there's more to the world than meets the I, we'd never know.

ReplyDelete"Incredible worlds come into being beyond the dichotomy of True and False."

http://homepages.math.uic.edu/~kauffman/TimeParadox.pdf

Even the most risk averse would probably take a punt on the probability of last week's lottery numbers with odds of 1 to 1.

7-4F Roger the Butler.

ReplyDelete5-1 Planck's Constant.

10-1 Lucan's Maid

25-1 bar

Okay. So the only certainty is that those who are certain are certainly incorrect? I like that! Stops the deluded in their tracks and leaves the rest of us to get on with reality unhindered by the extremists who are certain.

ReplyDeleteDoes this qualify me to be a coin?